Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 1.981905 2.098383 2.220731 2.359277 2.512362 2.676978 2.868234
2025-10-12 1.832551 1.996526 2.177112 2.392423 2.644407 2.932866 3.292363
2025-10-19 1.739890 1.932212 2.150947 2.421366 2.751379 3.147509 3.669471
2025-10-26 1.650167 1.858949 2.102246 2.411576 2.801840 3.288843 3.961662
2025-11-02 1.575870 1.796199 2.058174 2.399222 2.842026 3.413923 4.239005
2025-11-09 1.503367 1.729824 2.003522 2.366844 2.850072 3.492881 4.456471
2025-11-16 1.439350 1.669611 1.951850 2.332940 2.850745 3.558191 4.657051
2025-11-23 1.397554 1.634420 1.928935 2.333622 2.895891 3.686236 4.962482
2025-11-30 1.367718 1.612404 1.920969 2.352450 2.965691 3.853458 5.347635
2025-12-07 1.320005 1.565047 1.877193 2.319235 2.957994 3.903226 5.545268
2025-12-14 1.271108 1.514120 1.826257 2.272941 2.927439 3.914184 5.676017
2025-12-21 1.230128 1.471995 1.785196 2.238061 2.910868 3.944484 5.842850
2025-12-28 1.216728 1.466352 1.793744 2.274943 3.005890 4.163810 6.393356
2026-01-04 1.202851 1.459398 1.799962 2.308457 3.097761 4.386896 6.992698
2026-01-11 1.187808 1.450077 1.802154 2.335618 3.180842 4.602702 7.619960
2026-01-18 1.161947 1.424974 1.780998 2.326392 3.204010 4.714285 8.044988
2026-01-25 1.136912 1.400123 1.759130 2.314734 3.221904 4.817256 8.470876
2026-02-01 1.107488 1.368272 1.726063 2.284174 3.205858 4.854765 8.748129
2026-02-08 1.079181 1.337179 1.693041 2.252156 3.185201 4.881253 9.003647
2026-02-15 1.062010 1.321181 1.681301 2.252800 3.220584 5.020041 9.581995
2026-02-22 1.050652 1.312982 1.680549 2.270582 3.286812 5.227261 10.404597
2026-03-01 1.026009 1.285231 1.650043 2.239209 3.263150 5.246643 10.691270
2026-03-08 0.998987 1.253479 1.612747 2.195456 3.214720 5.209675 10.800670